I would say this is where the fun begins, but with the A’s that may not be the case. As I write this on April 17th the A’s have a record of 3-14. In a way ironic that it matches the Chicago Bears season record from this past NFL season. For them it resulted in a number one overall pick, which they’ve since traded (and if you are interested on the implications of that trade for the Bears make sure to check out part 2 of my series on them). The A’s would certainly obtain the number one pick if they continue at this rate, and would also be the worst team in major league history. They are on pace to finish around 28-134. Sporadic would be a generous description of the offense, but what’s even more troubling is that the team’s offense has been leaps and bounds better than its pitching.
In order to fully commit to this rebuild I’ve forced myself to watch a good amount of A’s baseball. Watching them pitch makes me feel like I’m back in the outfield in little league. They just can not find the strike zone. Which seems crazy considering throwing strikes is the base principle that all pitchers are taught from the time they start playing. What’s exaggerating the situation is the fact that whenever the pitching does show up, the hitting does not. In games where A’s pitching has held opponents to five runs or less, which is just six times in 17 tries, they have averaged to score just 3.3 runs. This is further boosted by an outlier outing of 8 runs in an April 12 victory over the Orioles, hands down the teams most complete outing to date as their other two wins have been by a single run. Excluding the victory against Baltimore, the A’s have averaged just 2.4 runs in the other five contests. The A’s have had eight contests where they’ve scored four or more runs, averaging 6.6 runs per game in said games. The problem is the A’s have only won two of these games as the pitching has averaged to allow 8.9 runs across the eight contests.
As disastrous as things have been to start the year, it’s worth noting that baseball is a game of stretches, and every team is going to have bad to exceptionally bad ones. For most teams they won’t reach this extreme of a level, but given the A’s talent going into the season it’s not surprising that they are capable of reaching this level if ineptitude. The glass half-full mentality is to say that things almost have to get better. That’s true but this start has still done nothing but cement that this year, and almost certainly next year, is going to be about figuring out who on the roster projects as part of the future, and which guys can be moved for added assets to help the team down the line. The rest of this piece is going to be focused on who is who in my mind, and to conclude I’ll get into some possible additions the team could make and what role those guys could play.
The list of guys that project as part of this rebuild that are already on the big league roster is minimal, at the same time the A’s haven’t had anyone necessarily jump out as a trade chip that could yield a significant return. Ramon Laureano certainly seems to be the most ideal candidate, but he hasn’t shown the same upside that he did before he was suspended for PED’s. However, he could still help a contender in their push for the postseason as he offers plus defense and an elite arm in the outfield. His hitting has been the part of his game that has failed to come along as hoped. After looking like a potential superstar by posting an OPS of .860 and adding 24 homers across 123 games in 2019, he hasn’t posted an OPS better than .760 in the four seasons since. Over the last two seasons his OPS has been below .700. His defensive ability and his still evident power when on offensively will certainly draw interest. Right now, the Orioles and Cardinals both stand out as teams that could potentially be in the playoff hunt and could benefit from another solid defensive outfielder. That list is bound to get bigger with injuries and depending on who’s contending once the summer months come.
Aledmys Diaz is another candidate to be moved this season. He has plenty of experience and is capable of playing multiple positions, but at this point seems like a limited option offensively as shown by his early struggles this year. Hopefully Diaz can hit some sort of hot streak at some point so he can be a legitimate trade piece. At this point the more realistic outcome is that Diaz is designated for assignment at some point down the line when the team is ready to call-up a prospect they want to see get big league at-bats.
Shintaro Fuijinami is another person I thought could be an in-season trade candidate. He signed with these A’s as an international free agent from Japan on a one-year, four-million-dollar contract. The length of the deal indicates that the A’s don’t have much in terms of a long-term plan for Fujinami. Already age 29, Fujinami is likely at or past his physical peak, and his control issues that have persisted throughout the early part of the season make his longevity in the league questionable. His inability to command his fastball has forced him to rely on his splitter when behind in the count, and 91 MPH over the plate is a dream for big league hitters. I believe his movement on his splitter and slider offer upside out of the bullpen, but how much is going to be dictated by how well he can start controlling his fastball. It’ll be interesting to see if the A’s head in this direction in an effort to get some trade value out of him. Otherwise, he could also end up being let go when the team is ready to call-up a prospect.
The biggest breakout player for the A’s thus far has been Brent Rooker. The 28 year-old has seen brief stints in the big leagues with the Twins, Padres and Royals, but has had an unbelievable emergence in the early part of the season for Oakland. Albeit a small sample-size, he’s registered an OPS of 1.057 up to this point while adding four homers and 11 RBI playing in 11 of the A’s 17 contests. It’ll be interesting to see if he can continue at anything close to this rate, and furthermore if he does, what the A’s elect to do with him. At 28, like with Fujinami, it’s fair to question how much growth remains in his game. Because he doesn’t have much in terms of big league service time, the A’s could elect to keep him on a cheap extension and give it the next couple of seasons to decide. Again, the danger is that if he is having a flash in the pan start to the year it’s going to be hard to feel anything but regret if the team doesn’t capitalize on the upside he has shown.
Of the four players I’ve mentioned (Diaz, Laureano, Fujinami and Rooker) I’m going to make the assumption that two end up getting traded during this season, one is kept for the future and one will leave the team yielding no return. Laureano and Diaz are the most likely to not be on the team past the 2023 season, with Laureano being the more likely trade candidate. One of Fujinami and Rooker will stay for the future while the other will leave the team via trade or release. I’ll lock in for sure who’s staying in the early portion of the next part, but for now I’m going to focus on what could come back to the team in return for the players traded.
Like I mentioned, Laureano seems the most sure fire trade candidate. Even if one of the other guys I mentioned does get moved it’s unlikely both will yield a return that will eventually have an impact at the big league level. Most likely the return will be someone outside of the opposing teams top 30 prospects. These are typically high-risk, high-reward guys and so for the sake of realism, even given the A’s track record of development, I’m going to assume that in return the team gets one player of average to slightly above average big league production. So here we go, my first prediction/assumption.
Since I don’t want to predict injuries I’m going to stick to my list of two teams I mentioned earlier who could be vying for Laureano’s services and pick the Baltimore Orioles as the trade candidate. If you’d like to imagine another borderline roster player being sent to Baltimore in this package be my guest. I just don’t think there’s anyone on the team, even Aledmys Diaz, who would sweeten the deal enough to justify a more high-end return. Like I said, it’s likely the team won’t get anyone in the teams top 30 prospects. This can make it hard to pick what position/player to choose. Given the track record of pitchers blossoming after being underrated as prospects, Cory Kluber being the most notable example, I’m going to choose a pitcher coming back to the A’s. That pitcher is 6 ‘3 ” 20-year-old Juan De Los Santos. He has gotten off to a shaky start at the class-A level this year, registering an 8.15 ERA across his first five outings. Over his first four pro seasons however he’s shown a knack for keeping the ball in the ballpark, consistently averaging to allow less than one home run per nine innings each season and has also improved his strikeout rate from year to year. His age also offers 6-8 years of time to grow. Like the current A’s pitchers, the key is going to be the continued development of his control. If things go the best way possible De Los Santos could see himself in the big leagues by the 2025 season and establish himself as a solid long/middle relief option. He could also be an option to start on occasion, primarily filling in due to injury, but that doesn’t project as his main role in my mind.
The rest of this entry will focus on what guys on the team could be there for the long haul, and who of the team’s prospects could debut this season. Esteury Ruiz projects as maybe the most exciting long-term option already on the big league squad. He likely has limited upside in the power department but has shown an ability to hit for average and plays great defense in center field. He is also a great base stealing threat, which has once again become a part of the game due to the MLB’s new pitch clock and pick-off rules.
Shea Langeliers is maybe the next most exciting player currently on the roster. He’s shown solid flashes with the bat and is good enough defensively to warrant optimism he could be the team’s everyday catcher. What makes this interesting is Tyler Soderstrom. I mentioned him briefly when I touched on prospects in the first part, but he is the A’s top ranked prospect and currently plays catcher. There’s a building sense that he will likely move to either first base or a corner outfield position in the big leagues. Almost a hybrid of Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss, as Donaldson came up with the A’s as a catcher before moving to third, and Moss was a left-handed slugging outfielder who converted to first base with the A’s. If Soderstrom does change positions then it opens the door for both him and Langeliers to be staples in the Oakland lineup for the next few years. It’s also worth noting that the A’s current number five prospect, Daniel Susac, is also a catcher, so this could be an even trickier situation, but it could be as simple as Soderstrom moving positions, and Langeliers and Susac are the two big league catchers. Due to the simplicity this provides, it’s the direction I’m going for this rebuild. Other prospects that are projected to debut this year are: Zack Gelof, Mason Miller, Jordan Diaz, Freddy Tarnok, Luis Medina, Logan Davidson, Colin Peluse and Garret Acton. It’s pretty much a guarantee that not all these guys will make the cut of the final roster, and it would be nearly impossible to predict 100 percent accurately. But in this rebuild I’m going to assume Soderstrom, Gelof and Miller out of this group end up being regulars on the next great A’s team.
This means 2023 will either see the debut or acquisition of at least five players who will be a part of the final roster (Ruiz, Soderstrom, Gelof, Miller and De Los Santos). Additionally there is the possibility that Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers become part of that group. While the off-season between 2023 and 2024 will likely be focused on continuing to add young talent, I did mention in the first part of this series that I was going to make the assumption that the A’s will have some sort of stadium solution in the near future and therefore will start to spend at least some money. If that’s the case, it’s reasonable to assume they could look to add some veteran pitching in the offseason. While I am anticipating a boost in spending, I don’t want to be overly ambitious in my expectations. Three realistic options that I’m going with are: Jordan Montgomerey, Michael Lorenzen and German Marquez. All are around league average in terms of production and will likely command league average salary in free agency this upcoming off-season. Marquez does have a club-option in his contract, but for the rebuild I’m taking the angle that the option is declined and Marquez heads to Oakland hoping to unlock the things the Rockies couldn’t. One final signing I’m going to propose that is maybe more of a reach is Hyun-Jin Ryu. He is a bit of a bigger name but has appeared to be past his prime as his ERA has increased in recent years. He is the kind of veteran pitcher however the A’s have made a habit of signing, and typically getting some sort of last wind from. The names that stand out most are guys like Bartolo Colon and Rich Hill. Given Ryu will be 37 next season I don’t anticipate him being part of the final product, but the team could do what they’ve done in the past and cash in on a potential re-emergence from the veteran lefty and flip him for yet another piece.
That’s going to do it for part 2. In the next and final part of the Athletics series I’ll break down the prospects we’ll see debut and acquired in 2024, and map out how the rest of the roster is going to shape up.
Check out part 3 as well as the rest of the finished rebuilds on the page!
Unqualified GM 
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